Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 25.532957 27.137632 28.851310 30.828139 33.059189 35.515598 38.447753
2025-11-16 22.670107 24.779541 27.151872 30.052338 33.553146 37.711853 43.138999
2025-11-23 21.528386 23.979314 26.835325 30.475543 35.096367 40.926768 49.134325
2025-11-30 20.442579 23.087482 26.252214 30.417082 35.920659 43.222782 54.213291
2025-12-07 19.455499 22.208467 25.571165 30.111001 36.311393 44.898063 58.620987
2025-12-14 18.231733 20.946547 24.304684 28.910832 35.334934 44.483523 59.712405
2025-12-21 17.688639 20.498025 24.032254 28.985573 36.097368 46.636273 65.270650
2025-12-28 17.298499 20.213750 23.942148 29.280895 37.176014 49.375142 72.431585
2026-01-04 16.614526 19.510859 23.251751 28.678472 36.851474 49.819086 75.433463
2026-01-11 16.394755 19.401398 23.345055 29.184951 38.243087 53.260705 85.288059
2026-01-18 16.101258 19.176265 23.261946 29.418992 39.216402 56.112374 94.868139
2026-01-25 15.534468 18.559602 22.604765 28.754382 38.667884 56.117695 97.758131
2026-02-01 14.823152 17.787034 21.785558 27.939221 38.043360 56.362154 102.746268
2026-02-08 14.182978 17.094906 21.059305 27.238629 37.583530 56.946632 109.382249
2026-02-15 13.924031 16.907642 21.032023 27.601009 38.973411 61.510196 130.993713
2026-02-22 13.570369 16.569216 20.762208 27.550889 39.614051 64.648576 151.265200
2026-03-01 13.189449 16.174259 20.385546 27.294162 39.834752 66.893504 170.986431
2026-03-08 12.634489 15.512112 19.582238 26.283551 38.520255 65.216899 171.232889
2026-03-15 12.397206 15.293763 19.431913 26.346644 39.285576 68.859655 204.381950
2026-03-22 12.222766 15.157330 19.396020 26.595726 40.445616 73.882179 259.496115
2026-03-29 11.874103 14.756032 18.937284 26.087285 40.000723 74.387869 283.672213
2026-04-05 11.769086 14.705322 19.014850 26.514840 41.562692 81.230354 405.169686
2026-04-12 11.616377 14.578074 18.965697 26.712090 42.656565 87.125826 591.923426